Canada’s Political Earthquake: Alberta, Quebec, and the Fragile Confederation

By Andrea McGurran

Published: 4 November 2025

Canadian political earthquake (Andrea McGurran/2025)

Canada, long celebrated for its stability and multicultural ethos, is facing a political earthquake. Two of its most prominent provinces, Alberta and Quebec, are advancing independence movements that could reshape the nation’s political landscape—or break it apart entirely. While Alberta’s grievances center on economic autonomy and federal equalization payments, Quebec’s independence push is deeply rooted in the preservation of its language, culture, and sovereignty. A recent meeting between key leaders from both movements has revealed an unlikely alliance that could pave the way for seismic changes in the federation.

The rising tensions have led some analysts, including political commentator PJ the Belt, to predict the “balkanization” of Canada—a term evoking the dissolution of Yugoslavia. With Quebec’s pro-sovereignty party poised to form government in 2026 and Alberta’s independence movement gaining momentum, the country’s future as a unified state appears increasingly uncertain.

Quebec’s Sovereignty Movement: A Nation Within a Nation

Quebec’s sovereignty movement is not new—it has been a defining feature of Canadian politics for decades. However, recent developments suggest the movement is entering a critical new phase. The Parti Québécois (PQ), under the leadership of Paul St. Pierre Plamondon, is leading in the polls and has won the last three by-elections. If the PQ forms a government in 2026, a referendum on independence appears inevitable.

Plamondon’s vision for an independent Quebec includes sweeping changes that further distance the province from Canada. The province has already taken significant steps, including drafting its own constitution and severing ties with the British monarchy. In a unanimous vote in the Quebec National Assembly earlier this year, all parties supported a motion to end the province’s relationship with the monarchy. Plamondon has also pledged to remove the lieutenant governor, a symbolic representative of Canadian federalism, from Quebec’s political framework.

These moves underscore Quebec’s long-standing resentment toward the federal government. The province never signed the Constitution Act of 1982, and its leaders argue that federal control over Quebec’s affairs undermines its unique identity. According to Plamondon, independence is essential for preserving Quebec’s language, culture, and fiscal autonomy. He has also emphasized that federal equalization payments, which have historically benefited Quebec, are used to perpetuate what he describes as “political corruption” within Canada’s centralized system.

Alberta’s Push for Autonomy: A Different Path to Independence

While Quebec’s sovereignty movement is deeply tied to cultural preservation, Alberta’s independence push stems from economic frustrations. The Alberta Prosperity Project, led by figures like Dr. Dennis Modry, argues that the province is unfairly burdened by federal policies, particularly equalization payments and environmental regulations. Alberta, a resource-rich province with a strong oil and gas sector, contributes significantly to Canada’s economy but receives little in return, according to independence advocates.

On a recent Saturday, thousands of Albertans rallied in front of the legislature, waving royal blue flags and declaring their province would be “better off without Canada.” For many, Ottawa’s environmental laws and redistribution of wealth through equalization payments are seen as direct threats to Alberta’s prosperity.

As one speaker at the rally put it, “The East has always taken from us and abused us. We’re sick and tired of it.”

The Alberta independence movement, while less institutionalized than Quebec’s, has gained significant traction in recent years. Public opinion polls show growing support for sovereignty, and Modry’s group has been actively engaging with like-minded movements, including Quebec’s.

An Unlikely Alliance: Quebec and Alberta Find Common Ground

In September 2025, Paul St. Pierre Plamondon met with leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project, including Dr. Modry, to discuss areas of mutual interest. The meeting marked an unprecedented moment in Canadian politics: two provinces with vastly different cultures and histories finding common ground in their quest for independence.

Plamondon reportedly assured Alberta leaders that a sovereign Quebec would recognize Alberta’s sovereignty following a successful referendum. This mutual recognition could create a domino effect, with each province’s independence movement bolstering the other. PJ the Belt, a political analyst on YouTube, noted that federal politicians are likely growing increasingly nervous as these movements gain momentum.

“Once Quebec declares independence, Alberta may follow,” he said. “At that point, Canada’s federal structure could unravel.”

This alliance is particularly striking because Quebec and Alberta have historically been at odds on many issues. Quebec’s environmental policies, for instance, often clash with Alberta’s oil-centric economy. However, their shared frustrations with federal overreach have created a surprising sense of solidarity.

The Constitutional and Economic Implications

The implications of independence for both provinces—and Canada as a whole—are profound. Quebec’s draft constitution aims to remove nearly all federal controls over the province’s affairs. If adopted, it would mark a significant step toward de facto independence, even without a formal referendum. Legal experts point to Section 155 of the Supreme Court’s analysis of the Quebec Secession Reference, which suggests that Quebec could unilaterally declare sovereignty under certain conditions.

For Alberta, the economic argument is central. Independence advocates claim that the province’s fiscal surplus, freed from federal taxes and equalization payments, would exceed the $14 billion it currently contributes to the equalization formula. Modry has argued that Alberta’s independence is not just desirable but economically necessary to protect its industries and future prosperity.

However, these moves would also pose significant challenges. An independent Quebec or Alberta would need to renegotiate trade agreements, establish new political institutions, and address potential conflicts over natural resources and borders. The loss of Quebec and Alberta would also be catastrophic for Canada’s economy and global standing, potentially reducing the country to a diminished federation.

The Federal Government’s Response

So far, Ottawa has remained relatively quiet on the growing independence movements, but this silence may not last. Political analysts believe that federal leaders will soon be forced to address the issue, either through renegotiations or by taking a harder stance against separatism.

Some have speculated that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government could attempt to appease both provinces by offering greater autonomy within the existing federation. However, both Quebec and Alberta have expressed skepticism toward such proposals. Plamondon has dismissed federal overtures as “too little, too late,” while Alberta independence advocates argue that the time for negotiation has passed.

A Nation Divided: The Balkanization of Canada?

The parallels between Canada’s current situation and the dissolution of Yugoslavia are becoming harder to ignore. Regional differences—cultural, economic, and political—are growing more pronounced, and the federal government appears increasingly unable to bridge the divides. PJ the Belt has warned that Canada may be on the brink of “balkanization,” with Quebec and Alberta leading the charge toward fragmentation.

While the situation remains fluid, one thing is clear: Canada is entering uncharted political territory. The independence movements in Quebec and Alberta are no longer fringe ideas—they are mainstream political forces with widespread public support. As referendums loom on the horizon, the country’s future hangs in the balance.

Conclusion

The political earthquake shaking Canada is unlike anything the nation has faced before. Quebec’s deeply rooted sovereignty movement and Alberta’s growing push for independence have created a perfect storm of political instability. With both provinces making significant strides toward autonomy, the federal government faces an existential challenge: adapt to the demands of its provinces or risk watching the country unravel.

As the world watches, Canada’s political experiment—once a model of unity in diversity—may be on the verge of a historic transformation.

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Andrea McGurran is an old-school, professionally trained investigative journalist, editor-in-chief, publisher, documentarian, photographer, designer, and digital radio, podcast, TV, and producer and host. She pioneered the first digital magazines and recently founded 3 more magazines, including the Ark Magazine, Biblical History Ark, and a soon to be released cooking magazine.

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Sources

• PJ the Belt, YouTube: Alberta Independence Movement & Quebec’s Sovereignty Push

• Supreme Court of Canada, Reference re Secession of Quebec (1998)

• Statistics Canada, Fiscal Transfers and Equalization Payments

• CBC News: Quebec National Assembly Votes to End Relationship with Monarchy

• Alberta Prosperity Project, Mission Statement and Objectives